World Cup semi-final qualification scenarios: New Zealand’s big loss in Pune keeps Pakistan, Afghanistan in race

The semi-final race is well and truly alive in World Cup 2023. 13 league matches are left and it seems as if only two teams, India and South Africa, are looking assured of clinching a berth in the semi-finals.

Australia are sitting pretty in 3rd spot but the battle for 4th place has spiced up after New Zealand’s loss to South Africa in Pune on November 1. A week back, it looked like the top 4 battle was over with India, South Africa, New Zealand and Australia looking a cut above the rest in the World Cup. However, New Zealand’s dip in form has given a lease of life to the bottom-placed teams. The Black Caps have lost their last 3 matches, which includes the 190-run crushing defeat to South Africa on Wednesday.

New Zealand slipped from No.3 to No. 4 after their second-biggest defeat in World Cup history and their Net Run Rate took a massive blow. They have 8 points from 7 matches, only 2 points more than 5th-placed Pakistan and 6th-placed Afghanistan.

POTENTIAL TIE-BREAKER SCENARIOS

With 12 points: Australia, New Zealand and Afghanistan
With 10 points: Australia, New Zealand, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka
With 8 points: Australia, New Zealand, Pakistan, Afghanistan/England, Sri Lanka

World Cup Qualification Scenarios: Explained

How South Africa can qualify

South Africa need to win one of their remaining two games to qualify for the semi-finals. They have 12 points from 7 matches. 12 might also be enough for them as their Net Run Rate is the best in the tournament, having scored in excess of 350 4 times in this World Cup.

If Afghanistan lose one of their remaining three matches, both India and South Africa will seal qualification with just 12 points.

SA’s remaining fixtures

Vs India in Kolkata on November 5
Vs Afghanistan in Ahmedabad on November 10

How India can qualify

India need to win one of their remaining 3 games to be assured of a spot in the semi-final. India have 12 points from 6 matches.

India’s remaining fixtures

Vs Sri Lanka in Mumbai on November 2
Vs South Africa in Kolkata on November 5
Vs Netherlands in Bengaluru on November 12

How Australia can qualify

Australia need to win at least one of their remaining 3 matches to remain in contention for the semi-final. The 5-time champions will be assured of a spot if they manage to win 2 of their remaining 3 or win all of them.

Australia might want to avoid being in a situation where they have to rely on the Net run rate as a 10-point logjam looks likely at the moment.

Australia’s remaining fixtures

Vs England in Ahmedabad on November 4
Vs Afghanistan in Mumbai on November 7
Vs Bangladesh in Pune on November 11

How New Zealand can qualify

Despite their 190-run defeat to South Africa, New Zealand have their destiny in their own hands. With 8 points from 7 matches, New Zealand will be all but through if they win their remaining 2 matches, as 12 points with a good Net Run Rate should be sufficient.

10 points might be enough for New Zealand to qualify but they should be wary of Net Run Rate scenarios.

Only Afghanistan from the bottom half can get to 12 points and cause New Zealand problems.

However, New Zealand will be in a spot of bother if they lose their next match to Pakistan in Bengaluru on November 4.

Injury woes have added to the BlackCaps’s problem as James Neesham and Matt Henry were added to the list after copping blows against South Africa. At the moment, New Zealand seem to only have 10 fully fit players with the likes of Lockie Ferguson and Kane Williamson also nursing injuries.

NZ’s remaining fixtures

Vs Pakistan in Bengaluru on November 4
Vs Sri Lanka in Bengaluru on November 9

How Pakistan can qualify

Pakistan looked down and out a week back. However, a bit of luck seems to be going their way. After a heartbreaking 1-wicket defeat to South Africa in Chennai, Pakistan outclassed struggling Bangladesh in Kolkata to snap their 4-match losing streak.

Pakistan have 6 points from 7 matches and are ahead of Afghanistan at the moment due to their Net Run Rate.

Pakistan don’t have destiny in their own hands as they would want other results to go their way, More importantly, Pakistan will stand a real chance of reaching the semi-finals only if they win their remaining two matches.

Pakistan will also have to be wary of their Net Run Rate as they need it to be their friend if there is a tie on 10 or 8 points. To go past New Zealand’s NRR, Pakistan need to beat the BlackCaps by 83 runs or chase down a target in around 35 overs in their meeting in Bengaluru on Saturday and then build on it in their final game.

PAK’s remaining fixtures

Vs New Zealand in Bengaluru on November 4
Vs England in Kolkata on November 11

How can Afghanistan qualify

Afghanistan seem to have a good chance to reach their maiden World Cup semi-finals and script history. They have 6 points from 6 matches and have the opportunity to reach 12 points and avoid a potential NRR battle in the end.

Afghanistan would want New Zealand to sip against Pakistan and then hope they win all their remaining matches to make it to the semi-final.

Afghanistan can also dent Australia’s prospects as the two teams meet on November 7.

Afghanistan can qualify with 10 points as well, provided their Net Run Rate is taken care of.

AFG’s remaining fixtures

Vs Netherlands in Lucknow on November 3
Vs Australia in Mumbai on November 7
Vs South Africa in Ahmedabad on November 10

Can Sri Lanka, Netherlands and England qualify?

Well, New Zealand’s big defeat in Pune has given a lease of life to these three teams as well. Bangladesh are the only side who are out of the semi-finals race as of November 1, after the game in Pune.

Sri Lanka will be in a good position to qualify if they win all their remaining matches, which includes a game against New Zealand. Sri Lanka should also hope that Pakistan and Afghanistan lose at least one of their remaining games and preferably Pakistan beat New Zealand.

Sri Lanka’s Net Run Rate though is a cause for concern and they need to win their remaining matches by big margins.

The Netherlands, who have 6 points from 6 matches, also have an opportunity to join the 10-point logjam. Given their performances, it’s not wise to rule them out but they have some stiff challenges ahead. Once again, the Net Run Rate is an issue for the Dutch.

England are in the 10th spot in the points table but they have an outside chance of making the semi-final.

England need to win their remaining 3 matches by huge margins to boost their Net Run Rate and hope New Zealand lose both their remaining matches or Australia don’t win from hereon.

If England are to go through with 8 points, they need a lot of other results to go their way. If England lose even one of their next 3, they will be knocked out.