For Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump’s win couldn’t come soon enough.
Putin may reportedly accept a deal where Moscow gains significant territory in Ukraine (about the size of the US state of Virginia) and Ukraine remains neutral and forgets about any plans to join NATO or the EU.
Though Ukraine is experiencing war fatigue, so is Russia. Russia is making steady advances in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, but the Kremlin is still struggling to recruit soldiers for the conflict. The recent revelation that North Korean soldiers were fighting in Ukraine attests to this.
Even as Russia ramps up the war, with reports from Ukraine suggesting Moscow had fired its first intercontinental ballistic missile of the war, it’s become clear that a peace deal would be in the interests of Moscow, as much as Kyiv.
According to western assessments, around 115,000 to 160,000 Russian troops have died, 90% of the personnel it had at the beginning of the war. While another 500,000 have been injured. To offset these losses, Russia has been recruiting 20,000 new soldiers a month.
Recruiting soldiers into the army has never been that easy in Russia even during peacetime. Recruits are often subject to hazing and bullying by more experienced soldiers, and as such joining the army is viewed as something to be avoided by many young Russian men. Known as dedovshchina, Russian bullying, hazing and beating of conscripts has been a notable pastime in the Russian military since the end of the 17th century.
After the Soviet Union dissolved, the Russian media exposed the appalling conditions in the military, noting that troops suffered from poor medical care and severe malnutrition. Many Russians may also remember how poorly prepared conscripts were treated who were sent off to fight the war in Chechnya in the mid-1990s.
The Russian government does not appear to be concerned about the average Russian soldier’s safety and wellbeing. Already unpopular during times of peace, this desperation to avoid being drafted into an active war becomes even more acute.