On December 12, 2022 there was a terror attack on Longan Hotel, also known as Chinese Hotel, in central Kabul that left three terrorists dead and two foreigners injured.
The attack was within days of the terrorist attacking the Pakistani embassy in Kabul on December 2 with the target apparently being the head of mission. The Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) claimed credit for both the attacks.
The two incidents with common terror groups are fraught with serious security ramifications both for Chinese interests in Af-Pak region and for Pakistan as it shows that Rawalipindi GHQ and its chief promoter China no longer get a free terror pass in Afghanistan.
The Longan Hotel attack is significant as there are Uighur elements within the ISKP group who are totally opposed to Communist Party of China (CPC) for oppression by Sunni Muslims in restive Sinkiang (Xinjiang) province. The terror attack is ominous as this reveals that the hold of Pakistani deep state on the ISKP group in pre-Taliban takeover days has weakened and the Uighur elements within the Islamist group have gained control.
Add to this the April 26, 2022 suicide bombing at Chinese propaganda Confucius Institute that left three Chinese dead by the proscribed Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the big picture becomes more deadly for Beijing’s interests in Af-Pak region. Simply put, the linkage between the proscribed East Turkestan Islamic Movement, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and Baluchistan insurgent groups cannot be ignored by Beijing or by Pakistan.
As a biggest debtor of China, Islamabad in the past has ensured that the entire Muslim world including Iran and Turkiye look the other way towards oppression of Uighur Muslims in Sinkiang province while totally ignoring the repression of CPC in Buddhist Tibet. The recent developments, which run parallel to the present total political and economic chaos in Pakistan, indicate a clear and present Uighur terror threat to Chinese Belt Road Initiative in Af-Pak region and to the restive Sinkiang through the Wakhan Corridor.
After targeting the world with terror since the 1990s with home bred Islamist groups, Pakistan’s equally culpable military and civilian leadership have got their comeuppance. Today, home bred TTP is targeting the Pakistan Army and security police with spectacular attacks in Peshawar and Karachi, the Baluch and Sindh insurgent groups are hyper-active with Chinese BRI as a principal target and now compounded by the Pak deep state bred ISKP’s attack both the “milk and honey” allies in Taliban ruled Afghanistan. The Pakistani nightmare has become never ending as its once protégé Taliban is at loggerheads with Rawalpindi over the Durand Line and Kabul refuses to be “naukar (servant)” of the ISI despite the latter’s clout over supreme leader Mullah Hibatullah Akundzada.
Fact is that the only force that can take on the ISKP in Afghanistan and prevent attacks against third country in Kabul be it China, Pakistan, Russia, US or even India is the Taliban as they have the capacity and capability to engage the hyper conservative Sunni Islamist force in so-called Khorasan province on ground. It is the Taliban which has managed to neutralize top terror leaders of ISKP in Afghanistan in the past and is the only force that can currently stabilize the war wrecked Afghanistan. In fact, if the Taliban leadership gives political and economic space to women, girls and other minorities, then the world could have a re-look at the Islamic Emirate under the Sunni Pashtun force.
However, for the perceived moderate Kabul section of Taliban to approach a more balanced agenda in the country, it is necessary for Pakistan-backed hardline Kandahar clerics to back down on their Sharia agenda. Clearly, the long- term loser in the new game in the Af-Pak region is Islamabad and its chief promoter China as the Talibanization of Pakistan has already begun. (EOM)