Ousted Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina paid the price of not heeding to the advice of the Indian national security establishment by appointing General Waker-us-Zaman as Army Chief in June 2023, which ultimately led to her downfall.
It is understood that top Indian officials had alerted Sheikh Hasina to pro-China proclivities of Gen Zaman before he was being appointed as the Bangladesh Army Chief last June 23, 2023. Rather than stem the rising youth protests in the country, Gen Zaman gave an ultimatum to Sheikh Hasina to flee the country with her sister. The release of BNP leader Khaleda Zia by the Junta is clear evidence that Islamist organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami and Islami Chhatrashibir will take the front seat in radical politics of the country.
Incidentally, Sheikh Hasina had already indicated to her Indian interlocutors that she did not want to fight the January 2024 general elections way back in April 2023 and only after persuasion from her supporters she reluctantly went into the electoral ring.
Knowing fully well the threat she was facing from Islamists as well as regime change agents of the west, Hasina did not want any one in her family to succeed her as she knew that they would be killed by her opponents. In that way, Hasina was a formidable wall against Islamists that fell down due to the machinations of the Army on Monday.
While Hasina is still to recover from her shocking exit from Dhaka, the Modi government will not let down India’s friend in the neighborhood and will leave the decision of political asylum in a third country to the ousted PM.
Even though the Army and euphoric radicals are celebrating the exit of Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh itself is on the verge of economic crisis like Pakistan, Maldives and Sri Lanka and will need support of western backed financial institutions to survive. Given the rate of unemployment, the radical students owing affiliation to JEI may turn against the Army if the solution offered is not to their liking.
Sheikh Hasina’s exit has left India between a rock and a hard place as ant radical regime will pose a threat from the eastern front with New Delhi now facing an increasingly unstable neighborhood. While the Modi government will offer its support to stabilize the interim government in Bangladesh, anti-Sheikh Hasina supporters in the west will set their own anti-India play into motion. Barring Bhutan, all India’s neighbors are currently facing political turmoil and the situation is expected to get worse in future. The only option that India has is to insulate itself from cross border challenges through better security and advance intelligence apart from tackling the fifth columnists within.