IND v NZ, World Cup semi-final: Ruthless India favourites against familiar knockout foes New Zealand in Mumbai

How can you beat this Indian side? 9 wins out of 9 in the league stage of the World Cup. Batting first, win.

Bowling first, win. Intimidating and clinical batting, yes. Ruthless bowling, yes. There seems to be no area of weakness that an opposition team can look to exploit, as seen in the league stage where India played across 9 different venues in a span of a couple of weeks.

India have been as ruthless if not more than the dominant Australian sides of the 90s and 2000s. They have been a cut above the rest, having finished with 4 points more than their nearest rivals on the points table.

“… We do understand the importance of this week, but for us, I don’t think we need to do anything different from what we’ve been doing in this tournament,” a confident Rohit Sharma said while addressing the press on the eve of their World Cup semi-final against New Zealand on Tuesday in Mumbai.

Yes, India don’t have to do anything different and if they are able to produce what they produced in the league stage, they are going to complete the rare invincible run.

However, it is the challenge of playing the knockout stage that has led to India’s undoing in the recent past. Enough has been said about India’s ICC title drought that has extended beyond 10 years. It’s those “45 minutes of bad cricket” that has put them out of World Cups. They were beaten by Australia in the 2015 World Cup semi-final, they lost to Pakistan in the 2017 Champions Trophy final, they lost to New Zealand in the 2019 World Cup semi-final, they lost to New Zealand and Australia in the World Test Championship finals, and lost to England in the semi-finals of last year’s T20 World Cup.

Yes, India have looked impressive in the league stages but they have not been able to crack the knockout code ever since MS Dhoni lifted the Champions Trophy in the Old Blighty in 2013.

TOUGH NUT TO CRACK?
And India are facing their bogey team, New Zealand, once again in the semi-finals. The 2019 World Cup semi-final defeat is still fresh in the minds of a majority of the Indian fans. Failing to chase 240 after their top order was blown away was an opportunity missed in Manchester 4 years ago. MS Dhoni’s run-out after Ravindra Jadeja’s valiant 77 is something that most want to forget.

“India obviously favourties, but if there is one side that won’t bow down to India, it will be New Zealand,” former England captain Nasser Hussain told Sky Sports on the eve of the contest, perfectly capturing the mood ahead of the big semi-final.

India have played New Zealand 14 times in ICC white-ball tournaments and have come up trumps only in 4 matches, losing 9 of them. Add the World Test Championship final it, and India’s record doesn’t make for good reading.

“Yeah, look, I mean, overall, whenever we’ve come up against New Zealand, obviously, probably the most disciplined team in terms of how they want to play the game. And they play their cricket very smartly. They understand the opposition quite well.,” Rohit Sharma said, talking up the meticulous side that New Zealand is.

The BlackCaps haven’t played their best cricket consistently in World Cup 2023, but overcame a similar wobbly run in 2019 before outclassing India.

New Zealand know how to start afresh and do the homework right before executing their plans on the field.

Yet, it’s hard to look past this Indian side, which is out to prove that there’s nothing called ‘peaking early’ in sport. Rohit Sharma’s men have learned from their previous mistakes, acknowledging their areas of concern and working toward eliminating them.

Take the middle-order woes for instance or the top-order failures. India have been in situations where their top-order has been bundled out cheaply. Even in their World Cup 2023 opener, India were 2 for 3, chasing 200. However, the middle-order stepped up with Virat Kohli and KL Rahul showing the way. After taking over as captain of the side, Rohit said India needed to be prepared to recover from 10 for 3 and they have done so quite a few times in the recent past. They have backed familiar faces for the middle-order and they have all delivered.

‘Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli’ or ‘Rohit Sharma or Virat Kohli’ have inevitably stepped up in every game, shouldering the burden of scoring runs.

And the bowling unit has not given an inch to opposition teams, being relentless and intimidating. The likes of Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Shami, Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav have been competing for the pole position in the wicket-takers list.

TEAM NEWS
India have settled nicely into the combination of playing 5 frontline bowlers and 6 batters after the unfortunate injury to Hardik Pandya. Having not changed their XI for their last league game against the Netherlands, India are likely to name an unchanged XI for the semi-finals.

On the other hand, New Zealand have the option of playing tall fast bowler Kyle Jamieson, who can be use the bounce at the Wankhede Stadium well. They might have to leave out an extra batter and New Zealand might not take that risk against the inspired Indian line-up.

PROBABLE XIs
India: Rohit Sharma (Captain), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul (wk), Suryakumar Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj.

New Zealand: Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson (captain), Daryl Mitchell, Glenn Phillips, Tom Latham (wk), Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Trent Boult, Lockie Ferguson.

PITCH AND CONDITIONS

Rohit Sharma said the toss won’t be crucial at the Wankhede but evidence from the World Cup suggests it might be. Totals in excess 350 have been posted thrice in 4 games and India rolled out Sri Lanka for 55 after posting 357 on the board. It needed a magical 201 not from Glenn Maxwell to help Australia chase down 292 against Afghanistan, the only team to successfully chase in Mumbai in this World Cup.

Expect another sporting wicket with good batting conditions in the first half and a bit more help for the bowlers, especially pacers, under lights at the Wankhede. Also, it’s expected to be clear on Wednesday.