Will Putin let Wagner group head get away with mutiny? The six big questions after Russia rebellion

There’s a sense of calm in Moscow after an armed rebellion by mercenary group Wagner ended on Saturday as suddenly as it had begun.

Fighters of the Wagner group were just 200km from Moscow, but then turned back. However, as the dust settles, the picture isn’t very clear and several crucial questions remain unanswered.

Let’s look at the background to the entire fast-paced development first.

The rebellion marked the biggest challenge to President Vladimir Putin in more than 20 years of rule. Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner group, called off the rebellion after Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko reportedly brokered a deal between him and Putin.

WHAT’S THE DEAL BELARUSIAN PRESIDENT BROKERED?
As part of the agreement that ended the crisis, Prigozhin will now go into exile in Belarus and won’t face prosecution in Russia where he faces charges over the weekend’s rebellion.

The primary reason for the Wagner group’s rebellion was a conflict between its head, Prigozhin, and the Russian military brass over issues linked to the invasion of Ukraine. Prigozhin accused the Russian military of killing his mercenary forces in a strike on a camp.

Besides, he was also upset that Putin backed the Russian defence ministry’s demand to seek contracts with private companies by July 1. Prigozhin, the chief of the private mercenary group Wagner, refused to be part of this deal.

However, what looked like a rebellion that could see gunbattles on the streets of Moscow fizzled out on Saturday, with the Belarus President’s intervention. What is the agreement that saw Wagner mercenaries return to their camps? That’s the biggest question of all right now and only sketchy details have come out.

WHAT’S THE FUTURE OF WAGNER GROUP, ITS MERCENARIES?
With Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin sent into exile in Belarus as part of the agreement, there is a question mark over the future of the group and its around 25,000 mercenaries.

The ones who did not back Prigozhin in the mutiny would be offered contracts directly with the Russian military. This means, they would be under the control of the very military brass against which Prigozhin was rebelling.

However, the future of the mercenaries who backed Prigozhin is unknown. Some reports claim that the fighters who backed Prigozhin will receive an amnesty and move to Belarus with him, as part of the deal.

The Wagner group looks dissolved as of now, but with its head and several thousand fighters likely remaining in Belarus, the mercenary group can be revived anytime.

WHAT ABOUT THE RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTER?
A primary reason behind Prigozhin’s rebellion was his disdain for Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu.

The Wagner group chief had blamed Shoigu and Russian Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, for the deaths of “tens of thousands of Russians” in the Ukraine conflict, a Moscow Times report said.

Although the uprising failed, Prigozhin did manage to capture the Russian army’s southern command headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, while Shoigu was nowhere to be seen.

On Monday, Shoigu made his first public appearance since the mercenary uprising demanding his ouster. The defence ministry released a video showing Shoigu flying in a helicopter and then attending a meeting with military officers, as he inspected troops in Ukraine.

But did Prighozin and his marching men return from just 200km from Moscow without achieving anything? Does the agreement brokered by Lukashenko promise any action against Shogu and Gerasimov? These questions remain unanswered.

DID THE WAGNER MUTINY HURT PUTIN’S IMAGE?
Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the biggest challenge in over 20 years of his rule as Prigozhin decided to go against his former ally. Once known as “Putin’s chef”, Prigozhin was branded a “traitor” by the Russian president.

Above everything else, Putin managed to bring the mutiny to an end without bloodshed. This has given a sense to Russians that Putin is capable of solving a crisis of this magnitude without allowing even a drop of blood to be spilled. This bolsters his strongman image, at least for the short-term.

However, there’s a question here as well. The revolt has left many wondering if Putin has lost a grip on Russia’s rule.

Putin denounced the revolt as treason, vowing to punish the perpetrators. He accused them of pushing Russia to the brink of civil war. However, with Prigozhin sent into exile without prosecution, many are left wondering if Putin’s claims of “punishing” the perpetrators will result in any concrete action.