How did BJP win Tripura assembly election? Vote-cutting and the Manik factor

Tripura Chief Minister Manik Saha in January this year put on a surgeon’s gown, picked up his tools and operated upon a 10-year-old boy.

On a day the BJP achieved the feat of retaining Tripura, some of the credit goes to Manik Saha, a dentist-turned-politician, brought in not even a year before Tripura was slated to go to the polls.

But there was another bigger factor that worked for the BJP in Tripura, according to experts. And no, it’s not about consolidation of Bengali votes in favour of the BJP.

Results of the Assembly polls in three northeastern states — Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura — were declared on Thursday. Tripura mattered the most for the BJP. It came to power in the state in 2018 with IPFT as its junior ally and completed a five-year term.

In the two other states, Nagaland and Meghalaya, the BJP was itself the junior partner. In Nagaland, it was in alliance with Neiphieu Rio’s NDPP and in Meghalaya it was part of Conrad Sangma’s NPP-led government.

The Tripura Assembly has 60 seats. The BJP managed to get 32 seats and its ally IPFT one seat. CPM bagged 11 and the Congress just three. The Tipra Motha Party managed to get 13 seats and emerged as the second-biggest party.

The 2018 Assembly polls saw the BIP-led NDA win 44 of the 60 seats.

THE EMERGENCE OF TIPRA MOTHA

The emergence of the Tipra Motha Party led by Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma, a member of the erstwhile royal family of Tripura, and which contested the Assembly polls for the first time, posed a serious challenge to the BJP.

Pradyot Deb Barma led an aggressive election campaign targeting the BJP and was seen consolidating the tribal votes in Tipra Motha’s favour. The Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura, the BJP’s ally which was a representative of the tribals, was being rendered redundant.

The Tipra Motha, in its election manifesto, promised to fight for ‘Greater Tipraland’, a separate state for the state’s indigenous people. The Tipra Motha’s other promises included a police force for the tribal council, 20,000 new jobs and a one-time package for militants who surrender.

With the Congress and the CPM joining forces and the BJP fighting anti-incumbency, the Tipra Motha was seen adding to BJP’s woes. But the Tipra Motha ended up helping the BJP, according to experts.

HOW BJP EDGED PAST

Tripura was a state dominated by various tribes. But the migration of Hindu Bengalis from Bangladesh during the Partition and the subsequent religious persecution converted it into a Bengali-majority state. Bengalis now comprise almost 70 per cent of the state’s population. People mostly from 19 tribes, including Tripuri, Reang, Jamatia, Noatia, Halam, Chakma and Lushai, are the second-biggest voting bloc.

The Left was a force to reckon with in Tripura, having ruled the state from 1978 to 1988 and again from 1993 to 2018.

In an Assembly with 60 seats, there are 12-16 seats with a considerable mixed population, according to Salim Shah, associate professor of economics, Tripura University. “The tribal population in these seats range from 20-30 per cent,” says Salim Shah.

“With 40,000 to 45,000 voters in each constituency, and Tipra Motha cornering 8,000 to 10,000 votes, the BJP got a definite advantage. The Tipra Motha ended up taking away the Left’s traditional tribal votes,” says professor Salim Shah.

The votes had in 2018 been cornered by BJP’s ally IPFT and would have returned to the CPM but for the Tipra Motha, says professor Shah. In a way, the Tipra Motha ended up benefiting the BJP.

And was there a consolidation of Bengali votes in favour of the BJP after Tipra Motha’s high tribal pitch?

“The narrow victory margins in the seats show there was no consolidation of Bengali votes for the BJP,” says professor Shah. “The only constituency that has seen a prominent consolidation of Bengali votes is Kanchanpur. Though Tipra Motha won the seat, Bengali votes consolidated in favour of the Independent candidate supported by the BJP,” says professor Shah.

BJP’S SURGERY AGAINST ANTI-INCUMBENCY

Professor Shah of Tripura University believes the change of chief minister months ahead of the Assembly election was another big factor.

The BJP brought in Manik Saha as the chief minister in May last year. That was just months after he made it to the Rajya Sabha as a BJP member. Just in March, Manik Sahah became the first BJP leader from Tripura to get elected to the Rajya Sabha.

“Bringing in Manik Shah to replace Biplab Deb as the chief minister worked. People were wanting change and the anti-incumbency was building up. Anti-incumbency would have been a big factor had Biplab Deb continued,” says professor Shah, adding, “People partially got the change they were hankering for.”

After Biplab Deb’s exit, the BJP tried to fulfil some of its 2018 election promises and basic service delivery, says professor Shah.

Manik Saha tweeted his thanks to PM Narendra Modi after the results were declared on Thursday and emphasised on the developmental work of the BJP. “The landslide victory is the reflection of people’s trust in your development goals”, Manik Saha tweeted.

That Manik Saha was not a veteran politician helped him get accepted by the common people of Tripura, believes professor Shah. Manik Saha served as a professor of dental surgery at Tripura Medical College & Dr BR Ambedkar Memorial Teaching Hospital.

Chief Minister Manik Saha operated upon a 10-year-old boy in January for oral cystic lesion. He emerged from the operating room in January and declared “There was no difficulty in performing the surgery though it was after a long gap. The patient is in good condition now.”

It looks like the BJP’s surgery in Tripura worked out well too.